The Bitcoin Price: Will it be $10 or $100000?
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Bitcoin is the first decentralized digital currency. Its value survived on a global basis for more than six years and attracted some of the largest merchants like PayPal, Dell Computers, Dish Network, etc.
The Bitcoin price is developed on stock markets where it’s being converted into different currencies. From February 2011 Bitcoin prices were equal one dollar. Since mid-spring 2013 Bitcoin has shown large volatility in its magnitude. The price was reaching again $140 value at the beginning of October and then the race went to $900 on November 18th. The price reached its top of $1124.76 on November 29th 2013, compare to a $13.36 price at the beginning of the year. Prices dropped to approximately $400 in April 2014. For all the fluctuations in pricing, 2014 may be seen as a year when Bitcoin began to move toward a mainstream market. BTC prices then went down to a level not much higher than $200 in early 2015, so now they are in the $200-$250 range.
Modelling the Price
There are developed models that are used to predict a Bitcoin price. For example, computer scientists Devavrat Shah and Kang Zhang decided to gather data from all major price exchanges and aggregate over 200 million data points. They took the historical prices and plug them into their forecast model to see what they get. They stayed out of making assumptions about the distribution of results. After 5 decades they received an 89 percent return on their investment.
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However, prices can swing in the wide range. Based on many observations, price fluctuations are usually present due to a number of reasons, where some of them are:
- Bad press. News about Bitcoin stock invasion or authority statements that Bitcoin is likely to be ruled by law regulations can disturb Bitcoin users’ activity.
- Bitcoin value fluctuations againstfiat currencies. Government regulates fiat money flow and market regulates Due to this situation when we have economic boom or recession it may affect the investments into Bitcoins.
- FDI in countries with high inflation rates.Bitcoin is valuable as a currency for the developing countries that in current time live with high inflation. Almost smooth transfer of Bitcoins encourages borrowing activity for the citizens of the developing countries.
- Excessive variance in acceptance of Bitcoin store of value and models of value. A store of value model is a function by which a capital asset can be further useful due to some prognosis. Bitcoin price compare to fiat currencies can move back and force based on event occurrence much more.
Due to these and many other reasons, Bitcoins have high volatility and some financiers tend to call them bubbles. There are also divergent points of view among business leaders. Warren Buffet, for example, suggests staying out of it and doesn’t take it seriously, but Bill Gates says what Bitcoin is an exciting new technology.
There are also completely opposite forecasts data that state the value of a Bitcoin to be $10 on one hand and to reach $100000 on the other. This uncertainty can only be covered with time.
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